A bayesian analysis of beta testing

In this article, we define a model for fault detection during the beta testing phase of a software design project. Given sampled data, we illustrate how to estimate the failure rate and the number of faults in the software using Bayesian statistical methods with various different prior distributions. Secondly, given a suitable cost function, we also show how to optimise the duration of a further test period for each one of the prior distribution structures considered

Inference for double Pareto lognormal queues with applications

In this article we describe a method for carrying out Bayesian inference for the double Pareto lognormal (dPlN) distribution which has recently been proposed as a model for heavy-tailed phenomena. We apply our approach to inference for the dPlN/M/1 and M/dPlN/1 queueing systems. These systems cannot be analyzed using standard techniques due to the fact that the dPlN distribution does not posses a Laplace transform in closed form. This difficulty is overcome using some recent approximations for the Laplace transform for the Pareto/M/1 system. Our procedure is illustrated with applications in internet traffic analysis and risk theory.Heavy tails, Bayesian inference, Queueing theory

Inference for double Pareto lognormal queues with applications

In this article we describe a method for carrying out Bayesian inference for the double Pareto lognormal (dPlN) distribution which has recently been proposed as a model for heavy-tailed phenomena. We apply our approach to inference for the dPlN/M/1 and M/dPlN/1 queueing systems. These systems cannot be analyzed using standard techniques due to the fact that the dPlN distribution does not posses a Laplace transform in closed form. This difficulty is overcome using some recent approximations for the Laplace transform for the Pareto/M/1 system. Our procedure is illustrated with applications in internet traffic analysis and risk theory

Livestock disease resilience: from individual to herd level

Infectious diseases are a major threat to the sustainable production of high-producing animals. Control efforts, such as vaccination or breeding approaches often target improvements to individual resilience to infections, i.e., they strengthen an animal’s ability to cope with infection, rather than preventing infection per se. There is increasing evidence for the contribution of non-clinical carriers (animals that become infected and are infectious but do not develop clinical signs) to the overall health and production of livestock populations for a wide range of infectious diseases. Therefore, we strongly advocate a shift of focus from increasing the disease resilience of individual animals to herd disease resilience as the appropriate target for sustainable disease control in livestock. Herd disease resilience not only captures the direct effects of vaccination or host genetics on the health and production performance of individuals but also the indirect effects on the environmental pathogen load that herd members are exposed to. For diseases primarily caused by infectious pathogens shed by herd members, these indirect effects on herd resilience are mediated both by individual susceptibility to infection and by characteristics (magnitude of infectiousness, duration of infectious period) that influence pathogen shedding from infected individuals. We review what is currently known about how vaccination and selective breeding affect herd disease resilience and its underlying components, and outline the changes required for improvement. To this purpose, we also seek to clarify and harmonise the terminology used in the different animal science disciplines to facilitate future collaborative approaches to infectious disease control in livestock

Population, sexual and reproductive health, rights and sustainable development: forging a common agenda.

This article suggests that sexual and reproductive health and rights activists seeking to influence the post-2015 international development paradigm must work with sustainable development advocates concerned with a range of issues, including climate change, environmental issues, and food and water security, and that a way of building bridges with these communities is to demonstrate how sexual and reproductive health and rights are relevant for these issues. An understanding of population dynamics, including urbanization and migration, as well as population growth, can help to clarify these links. This article therefore suggests that whether or not sexual and reproductive health and rights activists can overcome resistance to discussing "population", become more knowledgeable about other sustainable development issues, and work with others in those fields to advance the global sustainable development agenda are crucial questions for the coming months. The article also contends that it is possible to care about population dynamics (including ageing and problems faced by countries with a high proportion of young people) and care about human rights at the same time. It expresses concern that, if sexual and reproductive health and rights advocates do not participate in the population dynamics discourse, the field will be left free for those for whom respecting and protecting rights may be less of a priority

Segmentation of Textured Satellite and Aerial Images by Bayesian Inference and Markov Random Fields

We investigate Bayesian solutions to image segmentation based on the double Markov random field model, originally proposed by Melas and Wilson. Inference on the number of classes in the image is done via reversible jump Metropolis moves. These moves, usually implemented by splitting and merging classes, can be very slow, making them impractical for large images. We investigate simpler reversible jump moves that are quick to implement but show that they may mix very slowly. We propose a more complex split and merge scheme and compare its performance. Tests are conducted on satellite and aerial images

The Effect of Authigenic Clays on Fault Zone Permeability

Leverhulme Trust (GrantNumber(s): ECF-2020-560) Natural Environment Research Council (GrantNumber(s): NE/N003063/1) Open access via Wiley agreementPeer reviewedPublisher PD

Anatomy of the Monster: II

Abstract We describe the current state of progress on the maximal subgroup problem for the Monster sporadic simple group. Any unknown maximal subgroup is an almost simple group whose socle is in one of 19 specified isomorphism classes